China's Economy

Losing $500 billion in US trade would likely not be fatal for China's economy.

An announcement of fiscal stimulus by China's Ministry of Finance in late 2024 would indirectly boost consumer and business confidence, leading to improved consumption and investment in 2025.

China could experience a lost decade, similar to Japan's past economic stagnation.

China is not 'screwed' but will likely experience 20 years of stagnation, similar to Japan, without explosive 8% GDP growth. Significant Chinese stimulus is coming, but only after the Federal Reserve starts cutting rates to avoid pressure on the Renminbi and capital flight. China's economy will look different in 20 years.

China's capital flight could lead the CCP to tighten crypto regulations, especially on stablecoins like USDT.

If China's economy deteriorates further, Chinese citizens holding crypto (ICO era ETH, ETH from miners) could sell assets for fiat.

China's economic weakness could lead to more PBOC intervention to defend the yuan.